Bitcoin hits new record of $50,000 -

tulskij_tochnyj

I identify as a rifle
kiwifarms.net
Was going to write a post about Tether and insufferable twitter lolberts, but made this meme instead.
brrrs in crypto3.jpg
 

TheFLORIDAman CountDooku

moood
kiwifarms.net
I put 1/4th of my savings into Bitcoin the day before it was announced 1.5 billion was invested, it was a good return but it is quite confusing trying to time the actual crash. I get that a lot of people speculating aren't actual financial advisors or so-called experts but before I was hearing cash out around April - October but now I hear cash out in December 2021 - January 2022 and now I hear people on here saying it's about to happen in the next 3-5 months but I don't know man lmao this shit gets confusing when I try to generally time it. Just don't wanna absolutely demolish all my shekels but I am prepared somewhat.

I am mainly waiting to see what the next stimulus package will do to the market and crypto, until then I am keeping my mouth shut on legitimate bitcoin predictions.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I put 1/4th of my savings into Bitcoin the day before it was announced 1.5 billion was invested, it was a good return but it is quite confusing trying to time the actual crash. I get that a lot of people speculating aren't actual financial advisors or so-called experts but before I was hearing cash out around April - October but now I hear cash out in December 2021 - January 2022 and now I hear people on here saying it's about to happen in the next 3-5 months but I don't know man lmao this shit gets confusing when I try to generally time it. Just don't wanna absolutely demolish all my shekels but I am prepared somewhat.

I am mainly waiting to see what the next stimulus package will do to the market and crypto, until then I am keeping my mouth shut on legitimate bitcoin predictions.

In theory the central banks can keep this kabuki theater going indefinitely. I am just not buying it though. The surge in speculative assets, get rich quick pump and dumps and so on resemble the dot com bust alarmingly. And unlike back then we have since so overly securitized everything that so many things have exposure. Nothing was learned for the great recession sadly, except that there is apparently no such thing as moral hazard.
 

tulskij_tochnyj

I identify as a rifle
kiwifarms.net
TheFLORIDAman CountDooku, I think there is no way to predict the timing of correction crash. Crypto markets are driven by small group of insiders using less-than-legal practices (obfuscated "stable" coins, DeFi with insane yields in monopoly money, straight-up scams etc.). That shit is unpredictable on itself, now add regulators into equation and you'll understand why some older traders won't touch crypto with 10-foot pole. Yes, you absolutely can make money in this environment, but the risk is high. So, don't keep your coins on exchange's wallets, avoid stablecoins and hope for the best.
 

TheFLORIDAman CountDooku

moood
kiwifarms.net
In theory the central banks can keep this kabuki theater going indefinitely. I am just not buying it though. The surge in speculative assets, get rich quick pump and dumps and so on resemble the dot com bust alarmingly. And unlike back then we have since so overly securitized everything that so many things have exposure. Nothing was learned for the great recession sadly, except that there is apparently no such thing as moral hazard.
Yeah, I guess I didn't think about it like that. It's a shame that political figures don't even want to actually in-depth mention Crypto out of fear of retribution or their careers I assume.
TheFLORIDAman CountDooku, I think there is no way to predict the timing of correction crash. Crypto markets are driven by small group of insiders using less-than-legal practices (obfuscated "stable" coins, DeFi with insane yields in monopoly money, straight-up scams etc.). That shit is unpredictable on itself, now add regulators into equation and you'll understand why some older traders won't touch crypto with 10-foot pole. Yes, you absolutely can make money in this environment, but the risk is high. So, don't keep your coins on exchange's wallets, avoid stablecoins and hope for the best.
I might sound like a Norman or a bone marrow baby when I say this but how would someone run off with the money of a stable coin? Especially if the tether is like a 30 billion market cap I don't think you could actually just run off with that.
 

Tookie

Mountain of Molten Lust
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I'm guessing it crashes back down to around $20K in the next three months. Roughly 2/3 of the exchange volume looks like Tether flying around so I'm assuming a crash of around that amount when the wheels come off that bus.
 
Last edited:

tulskij_tochnyj

I identify as a rifle
kiwifarms.net
I might sound like a Norman or a bone marrow baby when I say this but how would someone run off with the money of a stable coin? Especially if the tether is like a 30 billion market cap I don't think you could actually just run off with that.
Alright, I guess I have to write Tether post anyway.

1) "Should've read the ToS, bro"
Let's start with their ToS | archive:
Tether reserves the right to delay the redemption or withdrawal of Tether Tokens if such delay is necessitated by the illiquidity or unavailability or loss of any Reserves held by Tether to back the Tether Tokens
Well, up for a great start. What are "Reserves"? In theory, USD deposits, securities and other assets. In practice, Tether Inc. is some shady company that:
  • was founded by CSO and CFO of Bitfinex. Conflict of interest? No such thing on a True and Honest Free Market!;
  • has very limited access to banking (kinda like Josh but for much more nefarious reasons);
  • have never provided a financial audit. Crazy conspiracy theorists like me think that Tether Reserves are mostly crypto, DeFi contracts or IoU notes from unregulated exchanges (those of you who had witnessed MtGox fiasco should start getting flashbacks at this point).
Yeah, and both Tether and Bitfinex are now under NY AG investigation. The latter brings us to:
Any individual who is a U.S. Person and any entity that is a U.S. Person is prohibited from using the Site or any Services, including but not limited to using a Digital Tokens Wallet on the Site. Exceptions to this policy may be made by Tether, in its sole discretion, for Eligible Contract Participants only, which shall be customers solely of TLTD.
Here's the reason why USDT isn't traded on (((regulated))) exchanges with US Clients on them. While it seems detrimental at first, it's actually beneficial, because USD and USDT aren't traded against each other and their "ecosystems" are air gapped. You can't tell if 1:1 USD:USDT peg is real if you can't trade both against each other on the same platform and let market forces to reveal the real price. If this is not a red flag, I don't know what is.

2) How to get rich quick on the Internet
Here's how money are made with USDT (to put it simply):
  1. USDT is minted, lent to exchanges (with crypto or IoU as collateral);
  2. Exchanges sell USDT to clients for their BTC, and/or use USDT as a collateral for margin trading (THAT margin trade in crypto, where retail investor can get more leverage than any GigaJew.Inc can get IRL. Power to the People you say?) and DeFi, thus pumping the BTC price nominated in USDT;
  3. Because of 1:1 peg, BTC price nominated in USD is also pumped;
  4. BTC accumulated by Tether and exchanges are sold on Coinbase or other (((regulated))) exchange for USD
  5. PROFIT!
  6. goto 1.
This scheme works as long there is USD influx in the system. There are two issues:
  1. You can run out of retards eager to change their Fiat to Fiat(tm). Hence the endless shilling of #DigitalGold, #HaveFunStayingPoor etc. The world's first decentralized pyramid scheme needs you!
  2. Uncle Sam finally slamming Tether and other "stablecoins" with regulations/lawsuits. Google "STABLE Act", "NY AG investigation on USDT". The thing is, USDT basically undermines US Currency. Do you think the government will let it fly? Hell no.
And now you start getting articles like this:

Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it?
 
Last edited:

HOMO FOR LIFE

flaunting her autism like a title of nobility
kiwifarms.net
Alright, I guess I have to write Tether post anyway.

1) "Should've read the ToS, bro"
Let's start with their ToS | archive:

Well, up for a great start. What are "Reserves"? In theory, USD deposits, securities and other assets. In practice, Tether Inc. is some shady company that:
  • was founded by CSO and CFO of Bitfinex. Conflict of interest? No such thing on a True and Honest Free Market!;
  • has very limited access to banking (kinda like Josh but for much more nefarious reasons);
  • have never provided a financial audit. Crazy conspiracy theorists like me think that Tether Reserves are mostly crypto, DeFi contracts or IoU notes from unregulated exchanges (those of you who had witnessed MtGox fiasco should start getting flashbacks at this point).
Yeah, and both Tether and Bitfinex are now under NY AG investigation. The latter brings us to:

Here's the reason why USDT isn't traded on (((regulated))) exchanges with US Clients on them. While it seems detrimental at first, it's actually beneficial, because USD and USDT aren't traded against each other and their "ecosystems" are air gapped. You can't tell if 1:1 USD:USDT peg is real if you can't trade both against each other on the same platform and let market forces to reveal the real price. If this is not a red flag, I don't know what is.

2) How to get rich quick on the Internet
Here's how money are made with USDT (to put it simply):
  1. USDT is minted, lent to exchanges (with crypto or IoU as collateral);
  2. Exchanges sell USDT to clients for their BTC, and/or use USDT as a collateral for margin trading (THAT margin trade in crypto, where retail investor can get more leverage than any GigaJew.Inc can get IRL. Power to the People you say?) and DeFi, thus pumping the BTC price nominated in USDT;
  3. Because of 1:1 peg, BTC price nominated in USD is also pumped;
  4. BTC accumulated by Tether and exchanges are sold on Coinbase or other (((regulated))) exchange for USD
  5. PROFIT!
  6. goto 1.
This scheme works as long there is USD influx in the system. There are two issues:
  1. You can run out of retards eager to change their Fiat to Fiat(tm). Hence the endless shilling of #DigitalGold, #HaveFunStayingPoor etc. The world's first decentralized pyramid scheme needs you!
  2. Uncle Sam finally slamming Tether and other "stablecoins" with regulations/lawsuits. Google "STABLE Act", "NY AG investigation on USDT". The thing is, USDT basically undermines US Currency. Do you think the government will let it fly? Hell no.
And now you start getting articles like this:

Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it?
I will upload when this bubble inevitable burst at 70k lol.
 

Overly Serious

kiwifarms.net
I think I'm with most people here in believing that we're likely to see some major transfer over to a blockchain currency from the US dollar. I just don't think it will be BTC when it happens. There are other coins that have better underlying technology. Then again, I've seen enough in my career to know that decisions are made on many other factors than which is best technically.

Personally if I had made a substantial profit on BTC I would be getting out at this point. I know I would still be happy saying: "I made a lot of money even though I could have made a bit more" at the end of the day. Sure, it could keep going up and up but if it does then it's because the fiat dollar is going down and down and if that's the case there are more secure stores of wealth than Bitcoin that you could get into right now like property or metals.

The one thing I'm still trying to figure out is if there is a big transfer away from the dollar, what does that do to big mutual funds. Are they still a good thing to invest in if you believe the dollar is going to drop big time (I mean, more than it already is)?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 419

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Anyone selling now.

I am holding. Selling pressure doesn't seem to justify my belief that the collapse has come.

This is because Musk opened his Gob again and everyone rushed to be the first out the door. I would not sell personally. Honestly thinking of buying.

*edit* and tether getting yeeted by NY state. Rough water ahead. Glad I am in ETH but alas its getting shat on too atm
 
Last edited:
  • Agree
Reactions: 419

HOMO FOR LIFE

flaunting her autism like a title of nobility
kiwifarms.net
This is because Musk opened his Gob again and everyone rushed to be the first out the door. I would not sell personally. Honestly thinking of buying.

*edit* and tether getting yeeted by NY state. Rough water ahead. Glad I am in ETH but alas its getting shat on too atm
All your airline gains are fucked.
 

tulskij_tochnyj

I identify as a rifle
kiwifarms.net
If a stablecoin is not properly backed (and now we know that at least USDT wasn't backed 1-to-1 in 2017-2018, see their settlement agreement. And they haven't provided complete audit since then), it'll create digital "bank run" when people will get scared and decide to cash out. At first, exchanges/token issuers will impose redemption limits in hope of waiting out liquidity crisis. If the panic continues, desperate people will start buying crypto with stablecoins, so they can later sell that crypto for USD. As a result, crypto priced in stablecoin will skyrocket, while the price nominated in USD will plummet. This will drive the market further into the ground as the trust in "1-to-1 peg" is lost. At this point, exchanges/issuers will face a choice: to become insolvent and hold their customers' bags filled with useless stablecoins they can't redeem, or enter damage control mode, freeze customers' wallets and buy tickets to an undisclosed island in Caribbean. Given the fact most of them are already located on said islands, what makes you think they will choose the first option?

This is the worst case scenario, of course. Some stablecoins may survive the crash, you should be looking for those that comply with US regulations.

Archive
Tether and Bitfinex had a settlement with NY AG. They shall pay $18.5 mil in fines, can't do business in NY and shall provide regular financial reports.
Naturally, they started bragging on Twatter:
Archive
The agreement itself is an interesting reading. I'm not a lawyer, but that's what I was able to extract from that:
1) The AG office looked into events that took place from 2017 to 2019.
2) From June to September 2017, 446 mil of USDT were backed by $61 million.
3) After growing concern, Bitfinex and Tether requested an audit in June 2017.
4) Conveniently, missing $382 million were transferred to newly made Tether bank account from Bitfinex so auditors can verify it.
5) Tether shat out "transparency update" with convincing numbers obtained from auditors.
6) Audit was never completed after that.
Summary: Tether had issued misleading report, omitting the fact USDT was not fully backed by USD from June to September 2017.
Also, in 2018 Tether was lending money to Bitfinex without disclosing or collateralizing the debt, because Bitfinex fucked up and got $900 mil seized on third-party accounts. Later, Tether ninja-edited its ToS to accommodate the changes in Reserves policy.

So, despite Tether's claims on Twitter, they DID break the law and they're not off the hook yet. First, they have to provide regular reports to NY AG office for the next 2 years. Given that Tether is allergic to auditors, I doubt they will ever send anything. Second, nothing prevents federal agencies from investigating Tether, using this case as a jump-start. But this settlement gives Tether a much needed time either for exit scam or for getting their shit together :optimistic:.
Overall, happening is cancelled, heads aren't gonna roll just yet.
 
Top