South China Sea 2021 Conflict - China pulls its tiny penis at the Quad Alliance, World War ensues

The golden neckbeard

Web 1.0 Archaeologist and Professor of Goon study
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Yeah, most analysts are saying that the 2020s-2030s is probably the window in which China can strike.

Beyond that, demographic/economic issues may possibly force it to look inwards yet again.


TBH, the delivery system matters as well, though I think that the Chinese + Russians are still continuously working on theirs- hence the recent reveal of hypersonic missile technology. The US on the otherhand is still stuck with ICBMs, I believe.

Most Chinese ICBM's are direct part for part copies of Soviet per an agreement in 1953, China bought the components from Soviet factories directly so I would think reliability wouldn't be an issue. The Soviet union was well known for making amazing rockets and missiles. It was definitely a pioneer in the technology.

Indigenous developed Chinese airplanes and stuff are junk tho...but the stuff they copy turns out to work pretty well

As far as Australia getting a second hand nuclear submarine in the next decade...what sort of deterrence is that? China is commission a new Frigate every 3 weeks, a destroyer every 60 days and a carrier every 7 months.

Hell that's weak....might aswell be sending the HMS Reknown and the Repulse against the Japanese carrier fleet in 1941
 
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Snekposter

It is time we end the idea of a white male Santa.
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now I want a war against China, the world will massively improve for the people that survive
Then you're an idiot. War with China would be decidedly unpleasant with massive deficits of consumer goods of all stripes, worldwide for potentially years as industry retools and rebuilds. If you think things are bad now, you don't want to think about things in those circumstances.
Most Chinese ICBM's are direct part for part copies of Soviet per an agreement in 1953, China bought the components from Soviet factories directly so I would think reliability wouldn't be an issue. The Soviet union was well known for making amazing rockets and missiles. It was definitely a pioneer in the technology.
It was only good if the people doing construction and assembly laid off the vodka. A Russian satellite launch in recent years went badly due to an accelerometer that was installed backwards. Said accelerometer had an arrow pointing the way it should be inserted. Said accelerometer would have also needed sheer brute force to get it inserted backwards due to the way it was designed. Said accelerometer was still inserted backwards. Never underestimate a Russian's ability to fuck things up.

Also "muh second hand nuclear submarine." Bitch, the Virginia is a top of the line model, with the latest production blocks pulling double duty as SRBM carriers. You know, US-made SRBM's that like everything else in US inventory can take nuclear warheads. Good luck getting the USN to either confirm or deny that capability though. They make the CIA look inventive with how frequently they pull that line when it comes to nuclear warheads.
 

Hot Cup of Joe

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It was only good if the people doing construction and assembly laid off the vodka. A Russian satellite launch in recent years went badly due to an accelerometer that was installed backwards. Said accelerometer had an arrow pointing the way it should be inserted. Said accelerometer would have also needed sheer brute force to get it inserted backwards due to the way it was designed. Said accelerometer was still inserted backwards. Never underestimate a Russian's ability to fuck things up.
The ruskies built, and dropped, the largest nuclear weapon known to man; the Tsar Bomba, 100MT of pure destruction. So big was the blast, that the aircrew dropping it were told it was a suicide mission, even with all the latest in weapon retardation tech. They made out, but only by the skin of their knackers. The blast of the Tsar bomba sent a shockwave around the world 3 times.

The ruskies apparenlt built a Tsar Bomba 2, a 150MT behemoth, but decided against testing it, as they were concerned it would knock the Earth off it's axis.
 

Snekposter

It is time we end the idea of a white male Santa.
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The ruskies built, and dropped, the largest nuclear weapon known to man; the Tsar Bomba, 100MT of pure destruction. So big was the blast, that the aircrew dropping it were told it was a suicide mission, even with all the latest in weapon retardation tech. They made out, but only by the skin of their knackers. The blast of the Tsar bomba sent a shockwave around the world 3 times.

The ruskies apparenlt built a Tsar Bomba 2, a 150MT behemoth, but decided against testing it, as they were concerned it would knock the Earth off it's axis.
Yes. The Russians are extremely, extremely good at macroengineering and overall making big things and making existing things bigger. They're historically shit at the opposite though, since one requires sideways thinking and the other is relatively straightforward. Something like the Davy Crockett would have never, ever come out of Russian factories in any quantity due to the difficulties in engineering and precision. There's a reason the Russians have failed to fully adopt DU rounds for their tanks despite the French and Israelis managing to get production going in recent years, and its because one crossed cutting tool, one wayward pinch of uranium dust, one errant twitch, and KABLOOEY. And since we're dealing with Russians as opposed to black Scottish cyclopes, an incredibly expensive factory full of incredibly expensive equipment operated by highly-trained workers burning down in a self-sustaining metal fire is an inevitability rather than a highly dangerous possibility.

EDIT: I would just like to add that Russian scientists and R&D have historically been top-notch, going all the way back to the Tsars. If it came out of a Russian lab, you can be assured of its quality. This is thanks to the incredibly stratified, hierarchical Russian culture that the Communists did very little to change aside from swapping names and titles around, so all the guys at the top are at the top. Funding, political favors, you name it. On the other hand, given that the factory workers are not at the top, and therefore somewhere just barely above the bottom as skilled labor... hoo boy. Little formal education, workforce training that's just good enough, rampant drunkenness and alcoholism... As a result, if it came out of a factory, unless you're dealing with something so idiot-proof not even a semi-literate Russian on course to die at 55 of liver failure from how heavy he drinks can fuck up its assembly or maintenance like an AK... you should probably double and triple check the actual quality yourself.
 
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wtfNeedSignUp

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Then you're an idiot. War with China would be decidedly unpleasant with massive deficits of consumer goods of all stripes, worldwide for potentially years as industry retools and rebuilds. If you think things are bad now, you don't want to think about things in those circumstances.
I could get not wanting a war with China because of the expected massive amounts of deaths that will likely ensue, but "MUH PS5 AND IPHONES" might very well be the most retarded explanation why it shouldn't happen. Especially since that inequality in manufacturing is one of the biggest reasons why the USA is in freefall right now.
 

Snekposter

It is time we end the idea of a white male Santa.
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I could get not wanting a war with China because of the expected massive amounts of deaths that will likely ensue, but "MUH PS5 AND IPHONES" might very well be the most retarded explanation why it shouldn't happen. Especially since that inequality in manufacturing is one of the biggest reasons why the USA is in freefall right now.
Well, the dude mentioned "whoever survived" so it isn't like he gives a damn about the body counts, now does he? That and the vast bulk of the dead would be the Chinese and the Indians, and the world could use a lot less of both. Scarcity of goods wouldn't be just entertainment devices either. You have any idea how much shit comes from that part of the world? Good luck finding microchips for anything for the next 5-10 years after China lobs some ordnance at Taiwanese plants out of spite. Your local hospital needs a new MRI machine to help treat cancer after their last one broke? Too bad, the factory in Taiwan that made the chips the factory needs is a crater, and all domestic production is rationed for the war effort. Good luck finding an affordable automobile now thanks to the shutdowns they've had, now imagine an active war going on there. While food wouldn't be rationed like in WW2... everything we get from that hemisphere would be gone for the war's duration at best due to local needs, and at worst the Chinese blow them up and it takes years for recovery.
 

Blackh0le

bark
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If India ever did fight with China is there anything (other than international humanitarian law that India gives 0 fucks about) that's stopping them from just bombing the three gorges and declaring victory?
China nuking them into a crater?
 

wtfNeedSignUp

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Well, the dude mentioned "whoever survived" so it isn't like he gives a damn about the body counts, now does he? That and the vast bulk of the dead would be the Chinese and the Indians, and the world could use a lot less of both. Scarcity of goods wouldn't be just entertainment devices either. You have any idea how much shit comes from that part of the world? Good luck finding microchips for anything for the next 5-10 years after China lobs some ordnance at Taiwanese plants out of spite. Your local hospital needs a new MRI machine to help treat cancer after their last one broke? Too bad, the factory in Taiwan that made the chips the factory needs is a crater, and all domestic production is rationed for the war effort. Good luck finding an affordable automobile now thanks to the shutdowns they've had, now imagine an active war going on there. While food wouldn't be rationed like in WW2... everything we get from that hemisphere would be gone for the war's duration at best due to local needs, and at worst the Chinese blow them up and it takes years for recovery.
The fact the west is so dependent on Asia for basic shit is just about the #1 reason we should break this dependency while China doesn't grab us completely by the balls, or we outright lose the method to produce those items.
If the second hand vehicles market returns rather than buying/leasing new cars forever then that's also a net plus.
 

Snekposter

It is time we end the idea of a white male Santa.
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The fact the west is so dependent on Asia for basic shit is just about the #1 reason we should break this dependency while China doesn't grab us completely by the balls, or we outright lose the method to produce those items.
If the second hand vehicles market returns rather than buying/leasing new cars forever then that's also a net plus.
You're acting like I'm opposed to ending the dependency, which is about as wrong as you can get. Secondly, you need new production to create a surplus of secondhand vehicles. Otherwise you get a Trabant you can pick up in 20 years when the waiting list finally clears, or pay twice the asking price for one you can drive away with used. I too want the astoundingly high rate of production of 91,088 motor vehicles a year it averaged.
 

The golden neckbeard

Web 1.0 Archaeologist and Professor of Goon study
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I could get not wanting a war with China because of the expected massive amounts of deaths that will likely ensue, but "MUH PS5 AND IPHONES" might very well be the most retarded explanation why it shouldn't happen. Especially since that inequality in manufacturing is one of the biggest reasons why the USA is in freefall right now.

We dont have the knowledge to build this sort of stuff. We just don't.

There would be no re-tooling...the factories that used to make TVs and chips are rusting hulks and have been for 40 years. The knowledge died with the greatest generation. When someone wants a TV they call a factory in china and send their logo

Even apple couldnt. All the operational engineers work for foxconn. You need those people..those systems. Even if yiu could move it to arizona or something wages would make the product triple in price
 

Snekposter

It is time we end the idea of a white male Santa.
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We dont have the knowledge to build this sort of stuff. We just don't.

There would be no re-tooling...the factories that used to make TVs and chips are rusting hulks and have been for 40 years. The knowledge died with the greatest generation. When someone wants a TV they call a factory in china and send their logo

Even apple couldnt. All the operational engineers work for foxconn. You need those people..those systems. Even if yiu could move it to arizona or something wages would make the product triple in price
Yeah, I remember reading the news article about that on these very forums. Utterly hilarious to see complaints from Apple about a lack of local talent when they're the ones who helped ship it all overseas. Whole thing came across as them going "Well, we've permanently fucked US production thanks to off-shoring, so the only thing we can do is keep things off-shored." I don't know if you're a doomer or a concern troll or what, but just shrugging and going "We're permanently fucked" is the single best way to ensure things stay permanently fucked.
 

MG-34

Not really keen on the jews.
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Most Chinese ICBM's are direct part for part copies of Soviet per an agreement in 1953, China bought the components from Soviet factories directly so I would think reliability wouldn't be an issue. The Soviet union was well known for making amazing rockets and missiles. It was definitely a pioneer in the technology.

Indigenous developed Chinese airplanes and stuff are junk tho...but the stuff they copy turns out to work pretty well
The problem with those old designs is the missiles need to be erected then fueled in a matter that takes at an estimated 2 hours, at least with the DF-5. In modern battlespace these could be picked off with less pressure than the US or Russia's arsenals. Nuclear weapon readiness is something highly classified by all nuclear powers but one of the reasons why the Russians and Americans keep such large arsenals besides redundancy is being able to keep missiles offline for maintenance while another takes its place with no loss in capability. The fact that the Chinese don't even have 1000 nuclear weapons means their nuclear option can be greatly cut down in a first strike with anything not targeted or missed might be down for maintenance and unable to be readied while a counter attack to such an action from SRBMs or land based mobile launchers won't have enough capability to cripple their enemy, or successfully downed by interceptors like THAAD or AEGIS as interceptors that geared towards perhaps only downing a handful of missiles launched in a coordinated salvo can now focus on a pittance of holdout missiles.
 

Eggplant Wizard

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Don’t forget that China is incredibly vulnerable to decapitation strikes due to their need for orders from up top to do anything. Also, how would they know when and where to fire their weapons if you blitz enough of the chain of command? Not to mention that the sheer panic that would ensue from an alpha strike anyway. I mean, China isn’t a tested force, there is no way to know if they just won’t say “fuck this!” and just leave.

They lost a skirmish with India. A skirmish that, IIRC, ended in a ROCK THROWING FIGHT! I don‘t think that China has the war power that it says it does.
 

Mukhrani

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We dont have the knowledge to build this sort of stuff. We just don't.

There would be no re-tooling...the factories that used to make TVs and chips are rusting hulks and have been for 40 years. The knowledge died with the greatest generation. When someone wants a TV they call a factory in china and send their logo

Even apple couldnt. All the operational engineers work for foxconn. You need those people..those systems. Even if yiu could move it to arizona or something wages would make the product triple in price
I know people who work in a factory that has facilities in China. They shipped all their best machinery to the Chinese plant decades ago, because the low wages let them maximize their profitability for scaled-up production overseas. Once that agreement expires, China owns said machinery, but by then the venture capital leeches that run the company will have long since cashed out. It's not just the talent, we literally shipped entire factory floors worth of equipment over there. A lot of those rusted out factories are just buildings; there's no actual 'guts' inside, and what is left is often second-rate or dedicated to specific product lines which weren't offshored.
 

ChefKiss

Autism Sommelier
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We dont have the knowledge to build this sort of stuff. We just don't.

There would be no re-tooling...the factories that used to make TVs and chips are rusting hulks and have been for 40 years. The knowledge died with the greatest generation. When someone wants a TV they call a factory in china and send their logo

Even apple couldnt. All the operational engineers work for foxconn. You need those people..those systems. Even if yiu could move it to arizona or something wages would make the product triple in price

apple makes phones for $180 and sells them for $1500, they could always make them wherever they wanted, they just wanted to squeeze more short term money and if that fucks them in the long term, good
 

Mukhrani

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If India ever did fight with China is there anything (other than international humanitarian law that India gives 0 fucks about) that's stopping them from just bombing the three gorges and declaring victory?

Aside from the aforementioned nuclear retaliation, China has been going balls to the wall with IADS like SAMs. On top of that, they have huge investments in missile defenses that target carrier groups, making it difficult to strike as close as possible to the 3GD. Even if India launched from their own air bases, that's ~1,000 miles over Chinese territory, and the Chinese have an air force which is more or less on par with India's. You're not going to just waltz in there and drop a bomb,

When it comes to a sneakier approach, China will have strict security protocols (by Chinese standards) on a giant, glaring liability like the TGD. It's not like India can fund some weird Turkic terror group to do it for them either. First of all, India doesn't exactly have a good rapport with Muslims - their number one FP goal is to purge all of the Muslims that were already evicted from India even further away from their borders. Second of all, China isn't Europe. They don't let the camel jockeys walk around raping people, they, um, 'reeducate' them in some godforsaken desert camp very far away from Hubei.

If the TGD gets destroyed intentionally, it will be once China's air defense systems and general resistance have already been broken. It's in the geographical heart of China, so by that point you can already bomb the shit out of most of the country. Once you're at that stage, most countries won't want to bomb it. You'd be making yourself an international pariah after you've already won the war for basically no reason. We're still catching shit and apologizing for two nuclear strikes, and the TGD would dwarf Hiroshima and Nagasaki in terms of both lives lost and damage. The Chinese also don't have the 'never surrender' attitude that the Japanese do; this is part of why the Rape of Nanking happened. The Japanese were disgusted at how easily the Chinese rolled over once the tide started to turn. They wouldn't stoically bear a gruesome firebombing campaign like the Japanese did, the people would abandon the CCP long before that. They would be seen as failed rulers not worthy of loyalty.
 

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